Together with the Australian Open soon approaching, Dan Weston returns to analyse the top 20 players from the ranks and gives his thoughts on who is over and under-rated…
Trying to use over/under-rated players to be found by metrics As has been the case for the past couple of decades, the WTA Tour has been exceptionally open and hard to forecast, with numerous players all capable of beating each other on any given day.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t mean that difficult to forecast equates to becoming impossible to forecast and I thought I’d examine some practical metrics with which to take a look at gamers, to attempt to establish those players in the WTA top 20 who are beneath and over-rated and whose results have flattered themor conversely, whose results are worse than their actual skill.
An example of how to apply the data An example application in the betting market is as follows. Let us say that we’re able to determine a player who has won 70% of their matches within a short sample – say six months – but only deserved to win 50% of them based on information. Perhaps they dramatically over-performed on crucial points and won much more tiebreaks than anticipation. In this case we might have the potential for some ongoing opposition of the player in the relative short term, as my detailed previous investigation has shown that it is extremely tough to maintain such a’clutch’ ability during a long period of time.
Using service/return points won to evaluate player abilities
To begin with, though, I would like to check out player ability levels. 1 way we can ascertain who’s done the best, with as little bias as possible, is to evaluate return and service points won percentages. Adding them together gives us a definite assessment of every player’s skills, with the following mounts adequate guidelines to a player general ability:-
110+: Elite level – illustrations are Novak Djokovic, Rafa Nadal on clay, Serena Williams at summit.
105-110: Powerful upper top 10 level.
102-105: Not top level, but solid top 20 player.
100-102: Should be rated from the 20-40 bracket.
Below 100: Unlikely to be ranked inside the top 40.
No existing WTA player fits into the 110+ category, with Simona Halep (108.5percent ) with the greatest 12-month all-surface figure. Serena Williams (109.2percent ) in the previous six months, wasn’t far from this amount, and if she can continue in this vein, possibly her favourite status for the Australian Open is justified.
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