Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov is a battle of styles that the game of MMA was created for. Maybe the best striker in the match vs the best grappler in this sport is a dream struggle for UFC fans and Nurmagomedov, the existing UFC lightweight winner, is favored to succeed -170 with McGregor coming back in +140. The mega-fight will take place tonight in Las Vegas in UFC 229.
From a promotional standpoint, making that the fight is a fantasy come true for the UFC as it will undoubtedly be among the most profitable events in their own history, and from a gaming perspective, there is lots of money to be made also. McGregor fans will probably be foaming at the mouth to put a bet on the Irishman, particularly at plus-money, however is that a wise wager versus the 26-0 Nurmagomedov, whose smothering grappling design was completely unsolvable?
McGregor’s grappling skills are most likely in the average range and that’s an area where he’s been taken advantage of before. A much smaller Chad Mendes readily took McGregor into the mat if he wished to UFC 189 (yes, I know McGregor won the struggle ), and he had been choked out by Nate Diaz in UFC 196.
He can have a significant disadvantage when it comes to wrestling, however, there are different regions where McGregor could have a certain upper hand, most especially with his palms. Eighteen of his 21 professional wins have come via T/KO and he’s got a very impressive hit list which includes endings of Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, Dustin Poirier and, needless to say, Paulie Malignaggi (insert smiley face emoji here).
Line Movement (or lack thereof)
If the amount of gambling action McGregor obtained vs Floyd Mayweather is some indication, some bettors clearly don’t care how he matches up stylistically — following launching at +950 vs Mayweather, McGregor closed at +265 because of an avalanche of bets placed on him.
Many, including myself, assumed we would have seen much more motion on the line as a result of plenty of public cash coming in on McGregor, but this hasn’t been the case yet. On the afternoon Khabib vs McGregor was announced, Nurmagomedov opened at -200 with McGregor at +160. Together with the champ currently at -170 and Conor at +140 on the afternoon of the struggle, there is still pretty good value on McGregor as a dog and those that are confident in Khabib should feel good about getting him at a far greater number than his opening chances.
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