When it won’t be the largest combat sports event of the summer, UFC 214 is the largest MMA event of the season. In addition to this Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier rematch, the card features two additional name charms, contenders and entertaining fights throughout.
Brad Taschuk of MMAOddsBreaker.com, takes a look at where the betting odds have moved for all 12 fights since launching lines (indicated in brackets) were released and he provides his ideas on each matchup. All traces are courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Jon Jones (-280) vs. Daniel Cormier (+220)
Jones was a -170 favored the first time these two scrapped and some naively anticipated the lineup would be similar this time around. However, it seems that Jones’ legal issues, run-in with USADA and layoff hasn’t had the impact anticipated online. It’s difficult to attribute bettors either, Cormier is currently 38-years-old, has been through some hard battles since their very first meeting, and Jones won each component of that first fight. Expect something similar – if not more dominant – that time around.
Regardless of how badly he takes his preparation, Jones is the type of fighter that rises to the occasion like few others. He, this is the ultimate occasion. Cormier is his main rival and he’s the opportunity to recover the belt he never lost against him. That combination will lead to a huge performance from Jones. Expect him to dispatch of Cormier and re-assert his dominance in the branch.
Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Similar to the main event, this line has not seen much motion. Given the contrasting styles, that is not tough to trust. There’s a contingent of individuals who believe Woodley is going to starch Maia using the first punch he throws. They could very well be right. The other side of the coin consists of those who believe that Maia can shut the distance, latch onto Woodley like he has so many others and just dominate with his grappling. They could be right too. Woodley’s inclination to back himself against the cage and play counter-puncher will be his passing. Maia is becoming so good at entering the clinch if not under pressure he should have the ability to make Woodley overlook after. Despite a high level wrestler the likes of Woodley, after Maia gets his hands on you, that’s a world of trouble.
The Brazilian’s capacity to initiate Jiu-Jitsu imports without hitting traditional takedowns is second to none (he’s perfected the only leg to back take) and Woodley being the kind of man who likes to explode out of places will only hurt him after that happens. It’s sort of surprising that Maia by Sub pays an excess dollar (+275 at Thursday morning), since Woodley won’t be able to survive 25 minutes of Maia engaging in the sort of fight he wants to. The other option is probably a fast Woodley KO (+350 for the champ at Round 1, incidentally ).
Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200) vs. Tonya Evinger (+600)
This battle being bettable depends on which type of bettor you’re. If you don’t have any difficulty throwing a huge lineup in a parlay, the Cyborg moneyline (at nearly -1400), or Cyborg ITD (almost -700) are almost sure things. If that is not really your style, neither will probably be laying nearly 2-to-1 on a prop like Cyborg Round 1.
The only case I can make for a play is based on Evinger’s strength. She has taken damage in several of her fights and persevered and she likely won’t return to conquer Cyborg in this one after a tough start, there’s an external shot she can survive five minutes. But even the prices for”Fight Begins Round 2″ and Cyborg Round 2 have dropped considerably (down to +150 and +450( respectively), making them less appealing even to someone who’s constantly on the hunt for some round robin legs.
Robbie Lawler (-175) vs. Donald Cerrone (+135)
It’s a shame this fight is occurring after both guys have apparently passed their peak in terms of durability, because a war with Lawler and Cerrone in their best would be something to behold. This fight will come down to space management and in-fight choices. Lawler wants to be inside, Cerrone would like to be outdoors. The problem for Cerrone is that Lawler’s constant pressure will eventually see him get inside and at the point, expect Cerrone to be much too ready to oblige him the war he is searching for. While this will give us the kind of struggle we want to view, don’t expect it to finish well for Cerrone.
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