Each year that I use a model by Harvard grad and baseball analyst Ben Zauzmer that is submitted in The Hollywood Reporter to triumph, nay, crush a hometown Oscars pool.
But holding bragging rights over your friends is not near as entertaining as taking an offshore sportsbook to the cleaners, so I thoughtwhy not apply it to Oscars prop bets? This season I set my sites on using his version to find the most ineffective and exploitable chances.
In comparing the percentages from Zauzmer’s model with the suggested odds on Bovada, I was able to identify a couple of longshot, contrarian stakes offering significant value on account of this favorite, frequently Roma, being overvalued.
It is unlikely that a vast majority of those hit, but in these odds we really only should bink you to have a profitable Sunday evening.
All credit belongs to the very sharp Ben Zauzmer, so please follow him Twitter and test out both of his articles on The Hollywood Reporter (1 & 2), where you can see the model’s full effects, and his commentary.
And for much more best Oscars prop bets, have a look at my appearance at the technical classes.
Best Picture
Favorite: Roma (-330)
Best Bet: BlacKkKlansman (+3000)
Zauzmer’s version gives Roma a 32.6% to win best picture, which is a far cry from the suggested Bovada likelihood of 76%. The model provides BlacKkKlansman a 17.5% chance to win — a huge discrepancy from Bovada’s 3 percent indicated odds. It might be a longshot, but that’s too much value to pass upon.
Via Zauzmer:
“ROMA EARNED MAJOR HONORS FROM THE DIRECTORS GUILD AND BAFTAS — GOOD ENOUGH TO VAULT INTO FIRST PLACE, BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO APPROACH 50 PERCENT. SO THERE’S ACTUALLY A BETTER CHANCE THAT ROMA LOSES THAN WINS, BUT IT’S STILL THE MOST LIKELY WINNER AMONG THE EIGHT CONTENDERS.”
Best Manager Favorite: Alfonso Cuaron (-2000)
Best Bet: Yorgos Lanthimos (+3300)
The Favourite, starring Emma Stone, may not be getting its proper due. (Picture: Vox)
Comparable to Best Picture, there’s a massive discrepancy between the way Bovada and Zauzmer are handicapping the race.
Bovada’s implied odds give Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) that a 95% chance of success, whereas Zauzmer’s version gives him a 65% chance. The value can be found with The Favourite director, Yorgos Lanthimos, where the model gives a greater opportunity to win (11.6%) than Bovada’s implied odds (2.8percent ).
Read more here: http://xn--lck0cd0byimbydc7722rjlva.com/ufc-on-fox-27-odds-justine-kish-vs-ji-yeon-kim/