Last night’s FanDuel MLB DFS Picks have been a mixed bag of frustration and manufacturing.
We finished up on the side of this Jose Berrios/Robbie Ray discussion as Berrios was really good in his own outing against the White Sox. Even the right-hander hurled 7.1 innings of both two-run chunk to go along with eight punchouts, earning his 13th win of the season in the process. He walked four, struck out seven and then got a no-decision, although ray went six innings and allowed only one hit.
Our Cubs pile showed out as they scored eight runs contrary to a Reds bullpen plus Kevin Gausman. The major hit came from Kyle Schwarber who clubbed a three-run house run off of Gausman. While he also added a pair of RBI — nicholas Castellanos remained hot with yet another double — his 55th of the season. While Nico Hoerner scored, ben Zobrist delivered solid value. I like.
The frustrating part of the lineup came in the form of our three-man Brewers stack. Cory Spangenberg of all players did the damage with a triple and a homer, although milwaukee scored five runs. A zero was posted by yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas gave us just one walk while Eric Thames delivered worth with a double, one and a run scored.
All told, it was a fantastic lineup with the exception of just two players, however I’ll take these outcomes and the gains attached.
Let us turn our focus to tonight’s big main slate that is 14-game and see if we could make it 2 in a row!
P — Justin Verlander (HOU) — $12,000 vs. TEX
I actually did look around to see if I could squeeze some worth out of a different pitcher on this slate for GPPs, but the truth is I just can’t fade Verlander inside this matchup because his strikeout upside is simply massive from the swing-and-miss Texas Rangers. Not merely is Verlander entering this excursion since the AL Cy Young favorite because of his 2.58 ERA, 18 wins and also enormous 12.01 K/9 rate, but he requires to a Rangers team that owns a 25.4percent K-rate versus right-handed pitching this season, good to the fifth-highest markers in baseball. As he has had his share of excursions against them this season verlander is familiar with this Texas lineup. Tonight will mark the sixth start of the year for Verlander against those Rangers, and he’s pitched into a 2.70 ERA using a 11.70 K/9 rate against them across the initial five. However, if we take out his very first start of the season against Texas — along with also next start complete — where he allowed four earned runs and struck out just four, Verlander possesses a 1.73 ERA and a 12.12 K/9 clip from them within his last four starts like a 12-strikeout campaign against them in his last start against the Rangers. Considering I have discovered a excellent lineup even with the expensive Verlander in the top, I think we all need to be rolling with the upcoming Hall of Famer tonight.
C/1B — Freddie Freeman (ATL) — $3,800 vs. PHI
It is an NL East battle tonight in Atlanta since the Braves take on the Phillies in hopes of buring the Phillies once and for all from the NL playoff race. I think they will do just that tonight behind a strong operation against right-hander Vince Velasquez plus a Phillies’pen. Velasquez owns a 4.95 ERA and 5.44 FIP in the summer when allowing home runs at a large 2.08 HR/9 clip. He also owns a 5.40 ERA and 5.69 FIP on the road to go along with a 4.19 BB/9 rate that’s miles higher than his 2.43 mark at home, so I’m all in to a four-man Braves pile in this 1 tonight, beginning in with Freeman. It has been a year of mashing right-hander pitching for its long time Braves first baseman as he has submitted a big-time .291 ISO, 1.030 OPS, .420 wOBA plus a big 159 wRC+ from righties here in 2019. The figures are very similar at home, no matter how the power jumps to some .317 ISO in SunTrust Park vs righties, a venue that caters nicely to airsoft electricity hitters such as Freeman. He does not have lots of extra-base strikes against him, but Freeman has gone 9 for 26 (.346) with a set pops in his career against Velasquez. In addition, he snapped a mini-slump using a double his last time out, so let us look to build that effort from a pitcher tonight off.
2B — Wilmer Flores (ARI) — $2,600 vs. MIA
I surely have to find some value in this lineup with an pricey Verlander in the very top and pair of pricey Braves bats, and I have discovered a three-man value stack from the Diamondbacks on this slate, a team projected to dent 5.1 runs upside against left-hander Caleb Smith plus a weak Marlins bullpen. There is a couple of things working from the D-backs’ favor tonight. They rank third in baseball with a .353 team wOBA versus left-handed pitching, thanks to the players in this stack. Second, after a wonderful start to his year, Smith was hit hard of late, posting a 4.81 ERA because the All-Star break having a 6.39 markers in August and a 4.76 mark up to now in September. Finally, Smith owns a 4.77 ERA, 5.87 FIP, 5.05 xFIP along with a 2.59 HR/9 rate on the street in contrast to a 3.56 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.33 xFIP and a 1.23 HR/9 rate in the home. The home run rate is at home. Enter Flores who is once more mashing left handed pitching this season to the tune of a .340 average, .309 ISO, 1.023 OPS, .420 wOBA along with also a 160 wRC+. Those are some rather elite amounts. In addition, he possesses lefties for an even greater .380 ISO, 1.186 OPS, .482 wOBA and enormous 200 wRC+ against lefties in the home. There’s only a ton to like about the matchup ahead against the struggling Smith.
3B — Josh Donaldson (ATL) — $3,400 vs. PHI
Next guy up in our Braves stack is Donaldson who is putting himself in a great place to earn some big bucks as a free agent against the winter, thanks in big part to his work at home against right-wing pitching in 2019. Donaldson has certainly mashed right-handers overall as part of his own reverse-splits this season as he has posted a .280 ISO, .931 OPS, .387 wOBA and 137 wRC+ on the season against opposite-handed pitching, although he’s posted powerful numbers against lefties too. Still, his split is in the home against righties. At SunTrust Park versus right-handed pitching this season, the former AL MVP has published a eye-popping .397 ISO, 1.209 OPS, .486 wOBA along with 202 wRC+. To put it differently, his bat was 102 percent more productive than league average at home versus righties this year. This matters as Donaldson isn’t the same hitter on the road where he has submitted a .193 ISO and .719 OPS against righties this year. Donaldson is enjoying a huge month of September to boot as he has submitted a .289 ISO, 1.016 OPS, .425 wOBA along with 162 wRC+ for the month for this stage with the latter figure tying July because of his most rewarding month of this 2019 season. Sign me up all day here with all the veteran slugger.
SS — Nick Ahmed (ARI) — $2,500 vs. MIA
Keep an eye on the supported starting lineups as we proceed throughout the afternoon since Ahmed left last night’s match with a cut on his finger afterwards taking a grounder off of it, but he was convinced post-game he will play tonight and he’s been a horse this year for the D-backs, therefore I think he will begin this match tonight. Since there’s a lot of upside in his bat in a matchup against the scuffling Smith, that’s a fantastic thing. Ahmed has seen his soda growth since the start of the 2018 year, and that’s been the situation here in 2019 as well, largely against left-wing pitching. He’ll go into play tonight sporting a impressive .256 ISO, .961 OPS, .394 wOBA and 143 wRC+ around this summer versus right-handed pitching. The news is better as his best divide — undoubtedly — is in home versus lefties where he has touched them up to get a .328 ISO, 1.110 OPS, .447 wOBA and 178 wRC+. We even get a base upside with tonight as he has stolen seven bags in addition to his own 18 homers. He is not getting a terribly productive month to this point, however I think in the amounts he is posted at residence versus lefties — much more so from a pitcher that has fought on the road and of late as well.
OF — Nick Markakis (ATL) — $2,600 vs. PHI
Next man up in our Braves stack is Markakis who simply doesn’t receive the credit he deserves to discover how great his bat continues to be against right-wing pitching. He doesn’t get much attention because of the overall lack of home run power as he owns only a .159 ISO versus righties this season, and it has slugged only nine homers in a league in which the long ball is about the increase to be certain. That said, he possesses an .856 ISO, .363 wOBA and 121 wRC+ versus righties this year. His bat is 21 percent better than league average versus right-handed pitching. A frequent theme within this lineup because been players playing in their very best split, and that’s the case with Markakis too. The veteran outfielder has been very good in the home versus righties where he’s submitted a .184 ISO, .936 OPS, .395 wOBA and 142 wRC+. He’s been very good since missing about six months of activity with a fractured left wrist — normally a difficult injury to come back from. In three games since coming, he’s gone for 14 (.500) having a double, two runs scored and three RBI. Simply hasn’t missed a beat. He is also a .400 hitter having a double in 20 at-bats contrary to Velasquez in his profession. There is a whole lot of importance to be unlocked using Markakis tonight.
OF — Matt Joyce (ATL) — $2,400 vs. PHI
Completing our four-man stack is Joyce that has made his big league money hitting right-handed pitching throughout his journeyman career. The batting average is actually quite good against the two genders’ handedness, however he is logged only 20 at-bats versus lefties using a .300 average to show for this. Against righties, nevertheless, he’s hit .293 and also that the electricity is far better using a .185 ISO, but also an .884 OPS, .379 wOBA and 132 wRC+. The bat is indeed effective versus righties as a result of a large 16% walk speed that includes his OPS, wOBA and wRC+ characters soaring. We have a hitter hitting a very successful breakup with Joyce. At home against righties, the numbers improve into a .203 ISO, .952 OPS, .404 wOBA and 148 wRC+. I take overall production as a outcome and the greater power, although his walk rate is in fact lower at home than on the street. In addition, we possess Joyce loving his very best month of the season here in September as he has posted a .241 ISO, 1.011 OPS, .428 wOBA and 164 wRC+ for the month to this point. It is worth noting that he’s also 2 for 2 with a homer and a walk in his profession from Velasquez, although it’s a small sample. I will take the value and operate in what should be a productive Braves pile this evening.
OF — Mark Canha (OAK) — $3,200 vs. KC
I had $3,200 after rostering my Braves pile Verlander along with a three-man D-backs stack, and of the set my pick of this litter is Canha who’s having a breakout year at 30 years of 43, left for an outfielder. I was arrested to decide on the Indians’ Franmil Reyes given his big-time power, but I enjoy Canha’s splits as he takes on right-hander Jorge Lopez along with the Kansas City Royals tonight in the O.Co Coliseum in Oakland. Entering drama tonight, Canha has posted reverse spreads here in 2019. He possesses a .285 typical, .247 ISO, .940 OPS, .395 wOBA and 153 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching this year — most of which are exceptional to his characters versus lefties. We once again have a player enjoying his very best split in this matchup, although this is not a recording. Canha has possessed right-handers at home that season where he’s posted a .258 ISO, 1.058 OPS, .442 wOBA along with 184 wRC+. This wRC+ figure is his split of all of them. In the plate in September, Canha has slowed down after a August. However, he’s played in three consecutive games and contains a two-run homer in that time as well. Keep in mind Lopez owns a 5.44 ERA and 1.62 HR/9 on the summer, so I’ll take Canha’s positive breaks against a targetable starting pitcher tonight.
UTIL — Carson Kelly (ARI) — $2,500 vs. MIA
Completing also our three-man D-backs pile along with this lineup is Kelly who’s done some significant damage against left-handed pitchers this year. Kelly has appreciated a real nice year this winter, after coming over from the Cardinals in the Paul Goldschmidt exchange. In his first full season in the bigs, Kelly is now recently posted a .247 ISO complete with 18 home runs despite logging fewer than 350 plate appearances across 105 matches to the point. Having said that, the bat has been surreal against lefties that he’s possessed to the song of a .363 average, .325 ISO, 1.156 OPS, .462 wOBA along with a 187 wRC+. That is so quite impressive in your very first season in the big leagues. For the very first time within this lineup, we have a hitter not hitting his best split. Having said that, I really don’t think I’ll argue too much over Kelly’s .220 ISO, .977 OPS, .397 wOBA and 145 wRC+. It is a bit of a bummer that Kelly has endured a real rough month of September for this point, as he snapped a hitless streak with a hit and a run scored last night but there is a silver lining. He is also 1 for 2 with an RBI and a walk in a sample against Smith. Given the price and the stack, I am loving the value Kelly brings to the table at a matchup tonight that is very appealing.
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