This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some strong contests considering that is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They have a Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. I won my very first chair into it a few weeks back and I will try to receive my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $25k prize, then I will probably have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There actually are no cash game guards this week for me but I went with Yana since I fully expect this fight to go all 3 rounds so that I enjoy the floor she brings to the table. I also think she wins the fight and I believe she is going to be the fighter heading for takedowns. I don’t understand how large her ceiling is in money games it doesn’t really matter too much because we don’t have to hit 1st place in a double-up. I would anticipate about 10x from Yana in a decision win and I will take that day in my cash games.
GPP play of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly as there are a lot of scrambles and all the grappling improvements really accumulate. I expect this to be a really fun fight, but it should be Smolka that is the one going for the takedowns. I am always trying to find a minimum of 10x in my fighters and at $8.3k I would be shocked if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point loss to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s win over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP drama here and if he wins I’d anticipate near 100 DK points.
Underdog play of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a struggle I hope to stay standing, I have quite a lot of curiosity in this fight. I believe it’s going to be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is likewise the mid-range fight of the week, so that I feel that a KO from guy would have a fantastic chance to set them on the optimal lineup. I like it more because I am choosing the underdog to get the knockout and that I anticipate Millender to be the higher owned fighter. I will have this struggle in more than half of my lineups, but that I shall probably have at least twice the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I think it’s a better GPP fight than it is for cash games, but I think dos Santos is in play for cash since he’s an underdog and I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, but I’ll have a good amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of the week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at that salary and I really don’t see that occurring. If he wins a clear 30-27 conclusion, then he probably scores mid 70’s and in his cost which won’t win anybody a GPP. I really don’t believe he moves for takedowns in this matchup and I think he utilizes his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Even if he can go for takedowns then I don’t see him submitting Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO from him to pay off that salary and I am not willing to take this risk with my cash. That’s why he’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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