This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Florida. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entries at the $25k decoration, then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win will be gearing a guillotine. Aside from that, I think we have a fairly safe win here using Roberts and that’s what I am searching for. I need the safer wins in cash and that I will worry about who’s going to score the highest in GPPs. I believe we can get away from him in the GPPs in his price because when he sets up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win $25k. It will help us triumph in money games though and I would be amazed if he had a low scoring win . I think he is good for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with that in my money lineup.
GPP drama of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP drama of this week and he’s the greatest ITD chances on the card at -222. This is a setup struggle for him to receive a knockout and I believe that is quite likely going to take place in the first round. That should place Hardy over 100 points and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be among my top plays of this week, but he’s GPP just for me personally. We can’t trust him enough for cash games, so that’s why I like Roberts more in that arrangement. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and even with higher ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup so long as he gets the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is lined at -130 and that’s too good for me to pass in GPPs.
Underdog drama of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change once they are released. We receive Teixeira here for $400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he is favored to get the win. In addition, I think he can win in the 1st round with a score and submission above 90 points. That would provide him a good chance at being to the optimal lineup. I will be targeting both sides of the struggle in GPPs because I don’t expect it to go all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is what I enjoy the most and we have to have”underdogs” in our DK lineups together with the $50k salary cap. I think the clear path to victory for Glover is to the ground and that’s what I anticipate his game must be. I like him to find a submission win if he is able to land takedowns and he’ll be one of my greatest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand people were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a solid fade as well… But I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I have zero lineups such as her. In general, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling being in her best interest against Jandiroba and I believe she uses her wrestling at defense to attempt to keep this fight on the toes. Each of the danger is on the ground in this matchup and Carla gets the better boxing of both. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up around ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to cut it 8.2k so that I simply don’t see how she ends up on the $25k lineup this week if she does win, and that is why she’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 69-44 for +224.83u (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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