This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 name struggles in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to having PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few solid GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favourite competitions to chase so I’ll be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I will adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and I will find a good quantity of play in games. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the easiest money game punt of time at $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Conclusion is now -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ with all the striking volume she puts out then we’ve got a good floor there and it doesn’t matter whether she loses or wins. At the cost she lets you cover up for a few heavy favorites and if we can get 4 additional spots to win using a ~40-point reduction from JJ in our lineup then we will be sitting quite pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP drama of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is currently lined at -495 for this fight. The most probable outcome is that someone in this fight gets hauled out in 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes in least one 10-point knock down. If that can be from the 1st round, then you’re currently at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that is more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is the favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so he can’t have much time in the game left. I believe we function together with the favored here and throw into our GPP lineups and await the fireworks.
Underdog play of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week due to his wrestling/grappling possible. I also believe he is a live underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is what I would be worried about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of the two but he has never knocked out anybody, so I believe we’ve got a solid floor here at $7.3k even though this fight does stay standing since I do not see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of both though and I think he lands multiple takedowns in this battle and may win a decision using a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57% accuracy, and if he’s getting pieced up on the feet I am sure he will be going for much more than that here. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a good play in all formats and that I think he gets a split decision win here since the street underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week personally, but the person I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t think she could win, because she for sure could, and I think she does. However, I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I think we’d need a complete from her in this fight to receive 10x that salary and I believe that is quite unlikely to take place. Or, she will want FightMetric to rely all her screams as significant strikes. The maximum Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight up to now in her profession is 83 DK points and that has been against Irene Aldana who sets a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here afterward that still would not be enough here to place her in the winning lineup in her 8.7k price tag. I think if you’re earning 20 or less lineups this Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she’s a win it should not hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown each fight on the card and give my entire DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick forecasts, you’ll find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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