This weekend we have a 13-fight card after that long 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and I am prepared to win some money on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC introduction so it’s always nice once you’re already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests aren’t the greatest, but there is still a lot of cash to be won. I’ll personally be pursuing the big $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at these huge prizes. Listed below are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I will be starting my money lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is full of activity and his three UFC battles have all been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those kinds of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Especially cash games because we can lock at a win and receive all the points at the best battle on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the business done in cash games and we’ll get over 100 points with this fight. But with that win locked in, we just need to find 3 other people we feel good about.
GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is challenging to need to pay $9.5k for a guy like Barberena when you can just pay an additional $200 to find a -1000 favorite in Anders. However, I believe that’s what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I think we will get him at a somewhat lower possession due to his large salary, and he has a very good chance at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can find a 1st round KO then he will have at least 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, then I believe that you should get some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he’s a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up an end inside this struggle so that I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he’s beneath owned.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the easy value play of this week. Presently, Fili is the betting popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. But, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I love taking that worth when it’s available so that I presume he is in play in all formats. He will be popular in tournaments with all the value we are becoming on himbut I am willing to consume that chalk and I do not want to get burned by entirely fading that worth. I do think this is the toughest fight on the card to call, but when Fili keeps with his wrestling I think he will have a good shot at winning this battle. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I would prefer MJ although not by a lot. At $7.5k we don’t need a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass up on this value and I think he’s the simple underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my personal prejudice but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in any of my primary ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has just went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just seeking to strike. I believe this is going to be a striking battle also and I think that it will be closer than the odds indicate. At $8.9k I believe we’ll need a complete from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and I really don’t see that happening. If you do think Dober can get a KO, then you ought to be playing him. I’ll just be paying up someplace because I am not sure he can get that finish and I would not be amazed if he even lost the fight. I will say that I never look to use Dober at DraftKings, therefore I could get burned again here but I will stick with my Dober fade and he will be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each struggle, my private strategies & recommendations, and my selection prediction for every single fight then it is possible to discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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